Electability is bullshit.
It’s a nebulous term that voters use because they want to beat the sonofabitch in the White House, and that pundits use because they don’t want to come out and say that they think old white men have a better chance of winning because white men are shit.
We’re picking a candidate to take on a sitting President and that takes some balance between picking someone we believe in, whose policies we endorse, and who we think can beat the sonofabitch mentioned above.
That leads to a lot of angst and questions about whether we have anyone who can beat him at all.
Here’s a little brain cleanser for you. All the candidates with a significant chance to win the nomination can win, and most of them would be favored to win.
It’s Not Shocking when the Majority Wins
Why were we shocked on election day? It’s not just because an openly racist, misogynist sonofabitch was elected to the most powerful position in the known universe, but because we thought we had it won.
Clinton won three million more votes than the sonofabitch and only lost due to incredibly narrow margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That’s 46 electoral votes that were decided by less than 1% in their respective states that went to the sonofabitch. He got 56 more from states with a margin between 1-5%, including 29 out of Florida by a margin of 1.2%.
If you shifted 1.2% of the vote in four states, the electoral vote would have been almost precisely reversed and our lives would have been very different for the past couple years.
Now I have two questions.
Is the sonofabitch more popular now than he was when he was elected, or less?
Are the people who oppose him more energized now or less?
The World is Very Different Now
A lot of people took the result of the 2016 election for granted. The racist sexist shitbag wasn’t going to win. Most of the polling aggregator sites said Clinton was hugely likely, and even 538—the one most favorable to the sonofabitch—said Clinton was a huge favorite.
That’s not going to happen now. The 2018 election showed pretty conclusively that people are more engaged now than they were in 2016. More Democrats are showing up to vote, and when Democrats show up to vote, Democrats win.
We are the majority. Most of the time, the majority wins. There are plenty of flaws in our system, and the other guys are going to write new books of dirty tricks to try to suppress our vote, but if the 2016 election were held today, who do you think would win?
I think if the 2016 election were redone on the day after Election Day, that the result would have been much different simply because the result shocked people into an awareness of what happens when you stay home.
Let’s not Fuck this Up
That doesn’t mean we can sit back and coast to victory. The shitheads that support the sonofabitch are just as motivated as we are because they think the election has validated their worldview and they finally see an opportunity to crawl out from under their rocks and bask in the sun for a while.
We outnumber them, but that’s only an advantage if we take advantage of it. We have to put in the work. We have to get people out to vote. We have to mobilize, raise money, and treat this as a fight for our very lives.
Because that’s what it is.
The best way you can help the eventual nominee right now is to support them when they need it most by contributing to the Unite or Die fund. It’s a project of Crooked Media and Swing Left. All funds raised will be delivered to the nominee—whoever they are—right after the convention.
If you hate that sonofabitch and want to see him gone, click the link and drop them a few bucks.